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Recession Postponed

July 11, 2023/in Articles, News, Quarterly Market Commentary/by Mackenzie Edwards

Six months ago markets were falling, inflation was rising, the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates, and it looked as though a recession was right around the corner. Since then, we’ve had a banking crisis and the threat of a U.S. default. Fast forward to today and the stock market has defied gravity with the S&P 500 gaining 16%. While investors’ worst-case scenarios never materialized and the markets rallied, the first half of the year is a reminder that the stock market is not the economy, but a leading indicator of where investors think the economy will go.

The S&P 500 is up over 20% from its October 2022 lows and we’ve technically entered a new bull market, but before breaking out the champagne, investors may want to consider the concentrated and inequitable nature of this performance. According to S&P Global, seven of the S&P 500’s constituents have provided more than 100% of the gains in the index while the remaining 493 companies are essentially flat for the year. Just five of those seven companies represent nearly a quarter of the market cap of the entire index. The largest constituent, Apple, has surpassed the $3 trillion valuation mark, making it worth more than the combined market capitalization of the entire Russell 2000 index.

The extreme concentration and inequality in performance has been driven by investors going “all-in” on the rise of artificial intelligence and the possibility of it bringing a future boom in productivity. In addition, when the U.S. hit its debt ceiling in January followed by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March it led to a meaningful liquidity injection into the financial system. According to Strategas, the size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet jumped by $300 billion in March while the Treasury Department’s General Account fell from roughly $580 billion in January to $23 billion by early June. Since the debt ceiling was increased in June, the Treasury has begun replenishing funds in the General Account which should drain liquidity from the financial system.

Though the annual rate has decreased from 5.4% to 4.6%, inflation remains higher than normal. According to a report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households, over 23% of adults reported that their spending had increased but their income had not. Packaged goods company General Mills recently issued a profit warning due to consumers substituting from their branded products into generic alternatives because they are no longer able to stomach (pun intended) the company’s price increases. The U.S. economy is dependent on consumer spending which makes up 70% of its GDP but consumers now need 18% more today to buy the same set of goods as they did in January 2020. Households will keep spending as long as they have jobs and access to credit, but inflation continues to erode their purchasing power.

Cracks in the economy are beginning to show. From the start of the year through May, 286 U.S. companies filed for bankruptcy protection, including Bed Bath & Beyond and Vice Media. According to the Wall Street Journal, that is the highest number during the first five months of a year since 2010. Banks have become more strict with their underwriting and data on the manufacturing sector has been deteriorating for months. Commercial real estate continues to be a major area of concern, especially offices. In the U.S. alone, about $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate loans are due this year and next, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Americans continue to say they are concerned with the economy and believe it’s in bad shape; in one poll 83% of Americans think the economy is fair to poor and 72% expect it to get worse.

In spite of this negativity, not all things are bad and the American consumer has remained resilient. Compared to all other G7 countries, the U.S. is growing the fastest and has the lowest rate of inflation. The labor market is still strong, unemployment remains at record lows, and jobless claims decreased in May. People are back to traveling; the number of people flying in the U.S. recently rose above pre-Covid levels according to the Transportation Security Administration. Mortgage rates are undoubtedly high at 7%, but housing starts unexpectedly surged 21.7% in May and new building applications increased, suggesting residential construction is on track to help fuel economic growth.

As amazing as this market rally has been, it can be humbling to take a step back and view it with a wider lens. Most of 2023’s year-to-date gains represent only a partial recovery from 2022’s declines.  We may now technically be in a bull market, but last year’s bear market has not yet gone completely into hibernation.

 

Mackenzie Edwards – July 2023

 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Inlet Private Wealth®, LLC (“Inlet Private Wealth®” or the “Firm”) is a SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in Jupiter, Florida. Unless otherwise noted, all data has been obtained via Bloomberg®.  Inlet Private Wealth and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Inlet Private Wealth maintains clients. Investing involves the risk of loss and investors should be prepared to bear potential losses. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and may have been impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. The data contained in this report was gathered from what we believe to be reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. For information about Inlet Private Wealth’s registration status and business operations, please consult the Firm’s Form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).

https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/trust_page_hero_NEW.jpg 840 2000 Mackenzie Edwards https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Inlet_Logo.png Mackenzie Edwards2023-07-11 13:40:262023-07-11 13:40:26Recession Postponed

The “X” Date

May 18, 2023/in Articles, News/by Ted E. Furniss, CFA

After a disappointing 2022 tax season (from the government’s perspective), the U.S. debt ceiling’s “X” date is now fast approaching.  Estimates for when the U.S. Treasury will run out of cash have ranged from as soon as early June to as late as September and the U.S. Treasury Department is already utilizing extraordinary measures to avoid going over the current debt limit.  If a compromise cannot be reached, the U.S. Treasury will eventually have to resort to even more extreme measures such as shutting down the government to avoid payrolls, Social Security payments, etc. before the U.S. is forced to default on its debt.

The U.S. currently has approximately $31.4 trillion of debt.  This amount represents $93,393 for each of the 336 million U.S. citizens.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the median annual pre-tax earnings of wage and salary workers in the U.S. is currently $57,200 while the debt represents $263,423 for every full-time wage and salary worker in the U.S.  The weighted average annual cost of this debt is currently 1.8% and nearly half matures within the next three years.  With the cost of three-month T-Bills currently more than 5%, the Congressional Budget Office (a non-partisan organization) projects the federal government’s interest costs will surge, contributing to its projected $20.2 trillion in cumulative annual federal budget deficits over the coming decade.  If accurate, this would increase the amount of U.S. debt nearly 65% to $50.7 trillion by 2033.

Approximately 65% of U.S. government spending (Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid) is mandatory and indexed to inflation.  After making the current interest payments on the $31.4 trillion of U.S. debt, the remaining discretionary portion of the federal budget is just 28%.  Since the tax brackets in the U.S. are also indexed to inflation, a rapid rise in interest costs could squeeze out discretionary portions of the budget.  President Biden has been firm that he wants no fiscal reforms and wants a clean debt ceiling increase.  Speaker of the House McCarthy’s Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 would raise the borrowing limit by $1.5 trillion in exchange for limiting future spending growth, put work requirements on Medicaid and remove the funds allotted to the IRS and the clean energy tax credits that were part of the Inflation Reduction Act.  There is virtually no chance McCarthy’s plan will be passed by the Senate but the passage of McCarthy’s bill now transfers some responsibility to the Senate, which needs 60 votes to pass any bill.

The debt ceiling will almost certainly be raised in 2023 but the process is certainly not an example of representative democracy inspiring confidence.  Collectively, Washington D.C. appears complacent that rising debt is merely a political issue and not a cause for economic or financial concern as most current policymakers have only served in office during an era with low inflation, low interest rates and declining debt service costs.  Uber political polarization makes it very unlikely any agreement on the debt ceiling will mitigate the CBO’s estimated growth of U.S. Government debt.  While there is not an ironclad threshold beyond which deficits or debt become a problem, at some point, either bond vigilantes and/or the rating agencies will raise an alarm over the US debt and rising interest costs.  Financial brinksmanship by politicians has not historically been good for the financial markets but it may result in some excellent long-term investment opportunities.

 

Ted E. Furniss, CFA                                                                                                   May 2023

 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Inlet Private Wealth®, LLC (“Inlet Private Wealth®” or the “Firm”) is a SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in Jupiter, Florida. Unless otherwise noted, all data has been obtained via Bloomberg®.  Inlet Private Wealth and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Inlet Private Wealth maintains clients. Investing involves the risk of loss and investors should be prepared to bear potential losses. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and may have been impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. The data contained in this report was gathered from what we believe to be reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. For information about Inlet Private Wealth’s registration status and business operations, please consult the Firm’s Form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).

https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/blue_overlay_2.jpg 1330 2000 Ted E. Furniss, CFA https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Inlet_Logo.png Ted E. Furniss, CFA2023-05-18 11:00:552023-05-18 11:11:28The “X” Date

The Tide Goes Out

April 18, 2023/in Articles, News, Quarterly Market Commentary/by Ted E. Furniss, CFA

The financial crisis in 2008 was essentially caused by trillions worth of debt going bad.  In its aftermath, Dodd Frank legislation and the Federal Reserve placed an emphasis on the creditworthiness of the assets banks held and incentivized them to own what regulators considered “very safe,” liquid government securities.  Because regulators considered these securities essentially riskless, they required banks to have relatively nominal levels of regulatory capital when owning them.  However, the legislative emphasis on credit risk and the Fed’s use of risk-weighted capital to judge a bank’s health do not take into consideration the risk of potential investment losses that can result from increases in interest rates.  Treasury securities are only free from credit risk when held to maturity.  As rates rise, even assets that are safe in credit quality will fall in price, resulting in a loss if sold.

After interest rates fell to zero during the early stages of the Covid pandemic, many banks became accustomed to having a base of deposits that did not pay depositors any interest.  Concurrently, many of these banks invested sizable amounts of the capital provided by these “free” deposits in long-term, “safe” government securities that were yielding around 2%.  To some banks the 2% spread being made from these deposits was viewed as a form of riskless financial alchemy and according to the Fed, U.S. banks bought trillions worth of treasury and agency securities during the past few years.

When inflation reached levels not experienced in over 40 years, the Fed was forced to start aggressively raising interest rates during 2022.  This rapid increase in interest rates caused bond prices to plunge and while this risk is implicit in every bond purchase, accounting and regulatory frameworks can obscure this risk and distort economic reality.  While the intelligence of many bank CEOs is debatable, most were smart enough to counter the potentially negative impact falling bond prices would have on their balance sheets by employing a relatively basic accounting change that also provided the added benefit of keeping billions of unrealized losses on their bond holdings from impacting reported earnings.  This “acceptable” accounting maneuver involves simply declaring an intent to hold bond investments until they mature rather than classifying them as being available for sale.  After making this reclassification, the prices of these bonds become “frozen” regardless of how far in market value they may fall.  The ability to make this accounting change falls well within approved accounting guidelines but has helped enable many banks to report robust levels of capital when the current economic reality of the assets they hold are worth significantly less.

This is the playbook that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) followed.  SVB bought long-dated Treasury bonds and declared an intention to hold them until maturity.   The unrealized losses of these bonds were initially ignored because they will pay the bank their par value at maturity but the income generated by these bonds went straight to the bank’s income statement, adding to SVB’s reported profitability.   SVB held about $90 billion of its $120 billion bond portfolio as held to maturity investments and did next to nothing to hedge against its exposure to an increase in interest rates.  Almost all of these bonds were rated “risk-free” or “low-risk” from a credit perspective but they were ladened with interest rate risk.  Today’s digital technology makes everything move faster and when withdrawals happen fast, liquidity and solvency (or the lack-there-of) can become synonymous.  After a few tweets by Peter Thiel raising the issue of SVB’s potential lack of liquidity, withdrawals snowballed as depositors instantly moved their funds in mass from SVB to other financial institutions simply via the touch of an app or the click of a mouse.  When SVB’s depositors in mass demanded their funds, the bank had far less in assets based on the current market value of the bonds they owned versus their par value if held to maturity and could not make their depositors whole.  Silicon Valley Bank quickly ran out of capital and was seized by federal regulators and arguably became the first victim of a digital bank run (albeit largely self-imposed).

After reading numerous annual reports of small and regional banks, it’s nearly impossible to predict how broad this problem could become but what’s certain is that many of these banks locked up their capital in bonds and mortgages at what could prove to be well below market rates for a long time.  According to the Fed, these holdings had collective unrealized losses of more than $600 billion at the end of 2022.  To paraphrase Warren Buffett, the tide of low interest rates has gone out and we are starting to learn who has been swimming naked.  As savers continue to seek higher rates of return on their deposits and become more mindful of the FDIC’s $250,000 insurance limit on their deposits, capital has been moving from smaller and regional banks to larger banks that are more heavily regulated, have stronger capital ratios and are too important systemically to be permitted to fail.  Post SVB’s collapse, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have not been able to open new accounts fast enough.

Throughout history, the United States has seemed to careen from crisis to crisis.  Investors will never run out of things to worry about but over time, the world gets wealthier, new scientific advances improve health and the quality of life while creative people and businesses bring innovations to market that delight us and improve our lives.  In time, this too shall pass.

Ted E. Furniss, CFA – April 2023

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Inlet Private Wealth®, LLC (“Inlet Private Wealth®” or the “Firm”) is a SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in Jupiter, Florida. Unless otherwise noted, all data has been obtained via Bloomberg®.  Inlet Private Wealth and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Inlet Private Wealth maintains clients. Investing involves the risk of loss and investors should be prepared to bear potential losses. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and may have been impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. The data contained in this report was gathered from what we believe to be reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. For information about Inlet Private Wealth’s registration status and business operations, please consult the Firm’s Form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).

https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/section_break_image.jpg 497 1024 Ted E. Furniss, CFA https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Inlet_Logo.png Ted E. Furniss, CFA2023-04-18 15:23:482023-04-18 15:23:48The Tide Goes Out

Settling Estates with Trusts – An Overview – December 2022

December 6, 2022/in Articles, Trust Article/by wpinletpw

There is a myriad of reasons a trust is a practical estate planning tool.  For many people, a resounding reason is avoiding probate in the process of distributing assets after death.  While probate could be considered a useful alternative in unique cases or in certain jurisdictions, a trust commonly offers a high degree of privacy with quicker execution at lower costs.

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https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/creative_solutions_section_hero_final.jpg 1333 2000 wpinletpw https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Inlet_Logo.png wpinletpw2022-12-06 11:47:212022-12-28 17:21:07Settling Estates with Trusts – An Overview – December 2022

Giving with Impact – November 2022

November 28, 2022/in Articles, Trust Article/by Inlet Private Wealth Team Inlet

It is important to understand that giving landscape to know how to get the most out of what you give.   Working hard for success and sharing our success with others are the natural outcome many of us enjoy.  Making the most of what we give to those who have the least is a goal of many of us and coordinating those objectives with family legacy issues ties the gift up with a bow.

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How to Position Life Insurance Effectively

September 22, 2022/in Articles, Trust Article/by Inlet Private Wealth Team Inlet

As a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017, the estate tax exemption more than doubled from $5.49 million per individual in 2017 to $12.08 million in 2022.  Form many people, the primary reason to establish an irrevocable life insurance trust (ILIT) was to make sure proceeds of their life insurance policies would not be subject to estate tax.  Upon the grantor’s death, his or her loved ones would receive the insurance proceeds,

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What’s in a (Trustee’s) Name? August 2022

August 15, 2022/in Articles, Trust Article/by Inlet Private Wealth Team Inlet

One of the most consequential decisions in your estate planning is who to name as trustee.  The trustee’s level of knowledge, commitment, ability and skill will have an enormous impact on the intended purpose of your trust.   Despite the importance of this decision, it is often given less consideration than the structure of your plan or choice of attorney.  Even the most well-drafted estate plan will fail to achieve its purpose if the trustee you select fails to carry out their role properly.

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https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/individual_team_hero.jpg 840 2000 Inlet Private Wealth Team Inlet https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Inlet_Logo.png Inlet Private Wealth Team Inlet2022-08-15 14:31:162022-12-27 11:10:45What’s in a (Trustee’s) Name? August 2022

Halftime 2022

July 22, 2022/in Articles, Quarterly Market Commentary/by Mackenzie Edwards

In 2013, the Federal Reserve of the United States began publishing a report on the Economic Well-Being of US households. The survey includes modules on a range of topics relevant to financial well-being including credit access, behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education.  In 2021, self-reported financial well-being increased to the highest percentage in the nine-year history of this survey with 78% of respondents saying they’re “doing at least okay.”  In addition, Gallup found that Americans’ satisfaction with “the way things are going in their personal life” neared a 40-year high in early 2022, even though their satisfaction with “the way things are going in the U.S.” neared a 40-year low.  Derek Thompson of the Atlantic refers to this as the “Everything Is terrible, but I’m Fine” philosophy as people all over the world tend to be individually optimistic and socially pessimistic.

Unfortunately, the “I’m fine” portion of this philosophy has been starting to deteriorate.  Consumer sentiment plunged in early June to the lowest on record, and for good reason.  With inflation running north of 8%, gas prices averaging over $5 per gallon, and mortgage rates nearing 6%, consumers are becoming stressed, and some leading indicators suggest economic activity has been slowing.  The financial markets have reflected this through the first half of the year with the S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ and the Aggregate Bond Index declining -20.0%, -29.2% and -10.6% respectively.  The S&P 500 is now officially in bear market territory after its worst first half-year in over fifty years.  In addition, the markets now look a lot different than they did 18 months ago.  Back then, Zoom Communications had a larger market cap than Exxon Mobil while today, Exxon Mobil’s market capitalization is now ten times larger than Zoom’s.  The formerly formidable FANG stocks have mostly corrected with Amazon down 36%, Netflix down 70%, Facebook (now Meta) down 52%, and Nvidia off 48% from their highs.  Cathie Wood’s flagship Ark Innovation fund has fallen more than 60% from its February 2021 high, wiping out all its post-pandemic gains.

Talk of a recession has been palpable and according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model, we may already be in one as inflation has started to negatively impact household spending.   However, it’s not just consumers who are starting to feel this pain: input costs for the S&P 500’s constituents have experienced an increase of 14.7% year-over-year.  A combination of higher labor, material, and transportation costs are causing margins to tighten and in response many businesses have started reducing their earnings forecasts and announcing hiring freezes & layoffs.

Recession or no recession, there’s no denying the world feels like it’s a mess right now.  News outlets, journalists, and reporters are repeatedly comparing today’s tribulations to the 1970’s.  To be frank, it’s hard not to see similarities.  However, investment opportunities have also historically been created when the economy and/or markets decline and we have also observed some positive signs with supply chains starting to improve, and most input costs starting to stabilize or even decline.  The unemployment rate is hovering around 3.6%, nearly matching the 50-year low of 3.5% just before the pandemic took hold in 2020.  Consumer spending may be softening but remains robust.  Consumption makes up 70% of the U.S. economy and while the savings rate has fallen, collectively consumers have never been in a better financial position with more than $17.9 trillion of cash and cash equivalents (Federal Reserve).  In addition, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the S&P 500 Index is now about 15.5x, approximating its historical average and making the equity market much more attractively priced than when it reached a peak of 23x last year.  The 70’s may have been the worst decade economically since the Great Depression but it was also when now legendary American businesses including Microsoft, Apple, and Home Depot were born.  Similarly, we think the significant declines in the financial markets during the first half of 2022 have created opportunities for better returns going forward.

Mackenzie Edwards – July 2022

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Inlet Private Wealth®, LLC (“Inlet Private Wealth®” or the “Firm”) is a SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in Jupiter, Florida. Unless otherwise noted, all data has been obtained via Bloomberg®.  Inlet Private Wealth and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Inlet Private Wealth maintains clients. Investing involves the risk of loss and investors should be prepared to bear potential losses. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and may have been impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. The data contained in this report was gathered from what we believe to be reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. For information about Inlet Private Wealth’s registration status and business operations, please consult the Firm’s Form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov).
https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/blue_overlay_2.jpg 1330 2000 Mackenzie Edwards https://inletprivatewealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Inlet_Logo.png Mackenzie Edwards2022-07-22 15:59:102022-12-22 15:41:38Halftime 2022

Portability: Weird and Wonderful – June 2022

June 13, 2022/in Articles, Trust Article/by Inlet Private Wealth Team Inlet

The simplicity and complexity of Portability often creates unintended consequences.  Let’s discuss how to steer clear of traps for the unwary and anticipate the credit to come as we seek to understand the nuances of one of the newest features of the estate tax law.  Optimizing the use of the Deceased Spousal Unused Exemption (DSUE) and avoiding common errors is crucial to make the most of this new law.

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Effective Estate Planning Beyond Tax – May 2022

May 25, 2022/in Articles, Trust Article/by Inlet Private Wealth Team Inlet

Let’s face it:  Most people will not owe estate tax in the current estate tax environment.  With an estate-tax-free amount of $12 million for individuals, less than two-tenths of one percent of Americans will owe estate tax.  This brings estate planning for most people back to the most critical, and often most ignored, issues:  family dynamics.

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  • Recession PostponedJuly 11, 2023 - 1:40 PM
  • The “X” DateMay 18, 2023 - 11:00 AM
  • The Tide Goes OutApril 18, 2023 - 3:23 PM
  • Settling Estates with Trusts – An Overview – December 2022December 6, 2022 - 11:47 AM
  • Giving with Impact – November 2022November 28, 2022 - 12:54 PM

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Inlet Private Wealth, LLC (“Inlet Private Wealth”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with a principal place of business in Jupiter, Florida. Inlet Private Wealth and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed on SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Inlet Private Wealth maintains clients. Inlet Private Wealth may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, notice filed, or qualified for an exemption or exclusion from registration or notice filing requirements.

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